NBER

Jonathan A. Holmes

Department of Economics
University of California Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: University of California at Berkeley

NBER Working Papers and Publications

December 2013Is This Time Different? The Slowdown in Healthcare Spending
with Amitabh Chandra, Jonathan Skinner: w19700
Why have health care costs moderated in the last decade? Some have suggested the Great Recession alone was the cause, but health expenditure growth in the depths of the recession was nearly identical to growth prior to the recession. Nor can the Affordable Care Act (ACA) can take credit, since the slowdown began prior to its implementation. Instead, we identify three primary causes of the slowdown: the rise in high-deductible insurance plans, state-level efforts to control Medicaid costs, and a general slowdown in the diffusion of new technology, particularly in the Medicare population. A more difficult question is: Will this slowdown continue? Here we are more pessimistic, and not entirely because a similar (and temporary) slowdown occurred in the early 1990s. The primary determinant ...

Published: Amitabh Chandra & Jonathan Holmes & Jonathan Skinner, 2013. "Is This Time Different? The Slowdown in Healthcare Spending," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 261-323. citation courtesy of

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