Institutional Affiliation: International Monetary Fund
|Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices|
with , , : w25353
We investigate the relationship between media sentiment and international equity prices using a new dataset of 4 million news articles published between 1991 and 2015. Three key results emerge. First, news sentiment robustly predicts (future) daily returns around the world. However, we find a sharp contrast between the effect of local news and that of global news: whereas local news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local equity returns, global news sentiment has a larger impact on returns that does not reverse in the short run. Second, news sentiment affects local prices mainly through the investment decisions of foreign — rather than local — investors. Third, large variations in global news sentiment predominantly happen in the absence of new inf...