NBER

Released on May 18, 2020

Measuring Real Consumption and CPI Bias under Lockdown Conditions

W. Erwin Diewert, Kevin J. Fox
(NBER Working Paper 27144)


Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis

Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz, Ahu Yildirmaz
(NBER Working Paper 27152)


The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession

David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi
(NBER Working Paper 27159)


Earnings Expectations in the COVID Crisis

Augustin Landier, David Thesmar
(NBER Working Paper 27160)


Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For

Jeffrey E. Harris
(NBER Working Paper 27166)


When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response

Valentin Haddad, Alan Moreira, Tyler Muir
(NBER Working Paper 27168)


Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Outpatient Providers in the US

Pinka Chatterji, Yue Li
(NBER Working Paper 27173)


Bayesian Adaptive Clinical Trials for Anti-Infective Therapeutics during Epidemic Outbreaks

Qingyang Xu, Shomesh Chaudhuri, Danying Xiao, Andrew W. Lo
(NBER Working Paper 27175)


Estimating Probabilities of Success of Vaccine and Other Anti-Infective Therapeutic Development Programs

Andrew W. Lo, Kien Wei Siah, Chi Heem Wong
(NBER Working Paper 27176)


Accounting for Global COVID-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020

Yothin Jinjarak, Rashad Ahmed, Sameer Nair-Desai, Weining Xin, Joshua Aizenman
(NBER Working Paper 27185)


The Relationship between In-Person Voting, Consolidated Polling Locations, and Absentee Voting on Covid-19: Evidence from the Wisconsin Primary

Chad D. Cotti, Bryan Engelhardt, Joshua Foster, Erik T. Nesson, Paul S. Niekamp
(NBER Working Paper 27187)




Released on May 11, 2020

The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining

Martin S. Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, Mathias Trabandt
(NBER Working Paper 27104)


Pandemic Recession: L or V-Shaped?

Victoria Gregory, Guido Menzio, David G. Wiczer
(NBER Working Paper 27105)


How Valuable is Financial Flexibility when Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis

Rüdiger Fahlenbrach, Kevin Rageth, René M. Stulz
(NBER Working Paper 27106)


Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength

Francesco Bianchi, Renato Faccini, Leonardo Melosi
(NBER Working Paper 27112)


A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics

Peter Zhixian Lin, Christopher M. Meissner
(NBER Working Paper 27119)


The Value of Health Insurance during a Crisis: Effects of Medicaid Implementation on Pandemic Influenza Mortality

Karen Clay, Joshua A. Lewis, Edson R. Severnini, Xiao Wang
(NBER Working Paper 27120)


COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion

Robert S. Pindyck
(NBER Working Paper 27121)


Covid-19, Shelter-In Place Strategies and Tipping

Zhihan Cui, Geoffrey Heal, Howard Kunreuther
(NBER Working Paper 27124)


Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.

Felipe Lozano Rojas, Xuan Jiang, Laura Montenovo, Kosali I. Simon, Bruce A. Weinberg, Coady Wing
(NBER Working Paper 27127)


Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Charles I. Jones
(NBER Working Paper 27128)


The First Weeks of the Coronavirus Crisis: Who Got Hit, When and Why? Evidence from Norway

Annette Alstadsæter, Bernt Bratsberg, Gaute Eielsen, Wojciech Kopczuk, Simen Markussen, Oddbjorn Raaum, Knut Røed
(NBER Working Paper 27131)


Determinants of Disparities in Covid-19 Job Losses

Laura Montenovo, Xuan Jiang, Felipe Lozano Rojas, Ian M. Schmutte, Kosali I. Simon, Bruce A. Weinberg, Coady Wing
(NBER Working Paper 27132)


Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity

Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf, Farzad Saidi
(NBER Working Paper 27134)


Expected Health Effects of Reduced Air Pollution from COVID-19 Social Distancing

Steve Cicala, Stephen P. Holland, Erin T. Mansur, Nicholas Z. Muller, Andrew J. Yates
(NBER Working Paper 27135)


COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock

Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis
(NBER Working Paper 27137)


Effect of a Federal Paid Sick Leave Mandate on Working and Staying at Home: Evidence from Cellular Device Data

Martin Andersen, Johanna Catherine Maclean, Michael F. Pesko, Kosali I. Simon
(NBER Working Paper 27138)


The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Michael Weber
(NBER Working Paper 27141)


Paying It Backward and Forward: Expanding Access to Convalescent Plasma Therapy Through Market Design

Scott Duke Kominers, Parag A. Pathak, Tayfun Sönmez, M. Utku Ünver
(NBER Working Paper 27143)




Released on May 4, 2020

Global Behaviors and Perceptions at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Thiemo R. Fetzer, Marc Witte, Lukas Hensel, Jon Jachimowicz, Johannes Haushofer, Andriy Ivchenko, Stefano Caria, Elena Reutskaja, Christopher P. Roth, Stefano Fiorin, Margarita Gómez, Gordon Kraft-Todd, Friedrich M. Götz, Erez Yoeli
(NBER Working Paper 27082)


Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?

Simon Mongey, Laura Pilossoph, Alex Weinberg
(NBER Working Paper 27085)


Did COVID-19 Improve Air Quality Near Hubei?

Douglas Almond, Xinming Du, Shuang Zhang
(NBER Working Paper 27086)


When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight COVID-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States and Adoption Time

Dhaval M. Dave, Andrew I. Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, Joseph J. Sabia
(NBER Working Paper 27091)


Did the Paycheck Protection Program Hit the Target?

João Granja, Christos Makridis, Constantine Yannelis, Eric Zwick
(NBER Working Paper 27095)


Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments

Scott R. Baker, R. A. Farrokhnia, Steffen Meyer, Michaela Pagel, Constantine Yannelis
(NBER Working Paper 27097)


Health vs. Wealth? Public Health Policies and the Economy During Covid-19

Zhixian Lin, Christopher M. Meissner
(NBER Working Paper 27099)


Inequality of Fear and Self-Quarantine: Is There a Trade-off between GDP and Public Health?

Sangmin Aum, Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee, Yongseok Shin
(NBER Working Paper 27100)


A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown

Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Werning, Michael D. Whinston
(NBER Working Paper 27102)



Released on April 27, 2020

Tracking Public and Private Response to the COVID-19 Epidemic: Evidence from State and Local Government Actions

Sumedha Gupta, Thuy D. Nguyen, Felipe Lozano Rojas, Shyam Raman, Byungkyu Lee, Ana Bento, Kosali I. Simon, Coady Wing
(NBER Working Paper 27027)


Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19

Ali Hortaçsu, Jiarui Liu, Timothy Schwieg
(NBER Working Paper 27028)


Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries

Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci
(NBER Working Paper 27039)


Which Retail Outlets Generate the Most Physical Interactions?

Avi Goldfarb, Catherine Tucker
(NBER Working Paper 27042)


Demographic Perspectives on Mortality of Covid-19 and Other Epidemics

Joshua R. Goldstein, Ronald D. Lee
(NBER Working Paper 27043)


A Model of Asset Price Spirals and Aggregate Demand Amplification of a "Covid-19" Shock

Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek (NBER Working Paper 27044)


Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic

Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
(NBER Working Paper 27046)


Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic

Dirk Krueger, Harald Uhlig, Taojun Xie
(NBER Working Paper 27047)


Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities during the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919

Robert J. Barro
(NBER Working Paper 27049)


Corporate Immunity to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Wenzhi Ding, Ross Levine, Chen Lin, Wensi Xie
(NBER Working Paper 27055)


Internal and External Effects of Social Distancing in a Pandemic

Maryam Farboodi, Gregor Jarosch, Robert Shimer
(NBER Working Paper 27059)


Economic Activity and the Value of Medical Innovation during a Pandemic

Casey B. Mulligan
(NBER Working Paper 27060)


Labor Demand in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims

Lisa B. Kahn, Fabian Lange, David G. Wiczer
(NBER Working Paper 27061)


Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment

Christian A. Moser, Pierre Yared,
(NBER Working Paper 27062)


Sequential Lifting of COVID-19 Interventions with Population Heterogeneity

Adriano A. Rampini
(NBER Working Paper 27063)



Released on April 20, 2020

Did California's Shelter-in-Place Order Work? Early Coronavirus-Related Public Health Benefits

Andrew I. Friedson, Drew McNichols, Joseph J. Sabia, Dhaval Dave
(NBER Working Paper 26992)


Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists

Christopher Avery, William Bossert, Adam Clark, Glenn Ellison, Sara Fisher Ellison
(NBER Working Paper 27007)


Risk Perception Through the Lens of Politics in the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic

John M. Barrios, Yael Hochberg
(NBER Working Paper 27008)


Covid-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods

Zachary A. Bethune, Anton Korinek
(NBER Working Paper 27009)


Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Michael Weber
(NBER Working Paper 27017)


Lock-downs, Loneliness and Life Satisfaction

Daniel S. Hamermesh
(NBER Working Paper 27018)


Covid-19: Testing Inequality in New York City

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Ken Teoh, Martín Uribe
(NBER Working Paper 27019)


Economic Policy Incentives to Preserve Lives and Livelihoods

Roberto Chang, Andrés Velasco
(NBER Working Paper 27020)


The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City

Jeffrey E. Harris
(NBER Working Paper 27021)


Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem

Charles F. Manski, Francesca Molinari
(NBER Working Paper 27023)



Released on April 13, 2020

Polarization and Public Health: Partisan Differences in Social Distancing during COVID-19

Hunt Allcott, Levi Boxell, Jacob C. Conway, Matthew Gentzkow, Michael Thaler, David Y. Yang
(NBER Working Paper 26946)


Triage Protocol Design for Ventilator Rationing in a Pandemic: Integrating Multiple Ethical Values through Reserves

Parag A. Pathak, Tayfun Sönmez, M. Utku Unver, M. Bumin Yenmez
(NBER Working Paper 26951)


Demographic Determinants of Testing Incidence and COVID-19 Infections in New York City Neighborhoods

George J. Borjas
(NBER Working Paper 26952)


U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak

Daniel Lewis, Karel Mertens, James H. Stock
(NBER Working Paper 26954)


How Deadly Is COVID-19? Understanding The Difficulties With Estimation Of Its Fatality Rate

Andrew Atkeson
(NBER Working Paper 26965)


Firm-level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1

Tarek Alexander Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Laurence van Lent, Ahmed Tahoun
(NBER Working Paper 26971)


A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown

Fernando E. Alvarez, David Argente, Francesco Lippi
(NBER Working Paper 26981)


Social Distancing, Internet Access and Inequality

Lesley Chiou, Catherine Tucker
(NBER Working Paper 26982)


COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty

Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Stephen J. Terry
(NBER Working Paper 26983)


Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home

Callum J. Jones, Thomas Philippon, Venky Venkateswaran
(NBER Working Paper 26984)


Covid19 and the Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters

Sydney C. Ludvigson, Serena Ng, Sai Ma
(NBER Working Paper 26987)


How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey

Alexander W. Bartik, Marianne Bertrand, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, Christopher T. Stanton
(NBER Working Paper 26989)


The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook

Theresa Kuchler, Dominic Russel, Johannes Stroebel
(NBER Working Paper 26990)



Released on April 6, 2020

The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City

Jeffrey E. Harris
(NBER Working Paper 26917)

Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?

Veronica Guerrieri, Guido Lorenzoni, Ludwig Straub, Iván Werning
(NBER Working Paper 26918)


The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way

Amanda Guimbeau, Nidhiya Menon, Aldo Musacchio
(NBER Working Paper 26929)


Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics

Òscar Jordà, Sanjay R. Singh, Alan M. Taylor
(NBER Working Paper 26934)


The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19

Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle J. Kost, Marco C. Sammon, Tasaneeya Viratyosin
(NBER Working Paper 26945)


The Impact of COVID-19 on Gender Equality

Titan M. Alon, Matthias Doepke, Jane Olmstead-Rumsey, Michèle Tertilt
(NBER Working Paper 26947)


How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?

Jonathan I. Dingel, Brent Neiman
(NBER Working Paper 26948)


How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic

Scott R. Baker, R.A. Farrokhnia, Steffen Meyer, Michaela Pagel, Consta, ntine Yannelis
(NBER Working Paper 26949)


Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew N. Greenland, Peter K. Schott
(NBER Working Paper 26950)



Released on March 30, 2020

An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine

David W. Berger, Kyle F. Herkenhoff, and Simon Mongey
(NBER Working Paper 26901)


Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus

James H. Stock
(NBER Working Paper 26902)


Compliance with COVID-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration

Guglielmo Briscese, Nicola Lacetera, Mario Macis, and Mirco Tonin
(NBER Working Paper 26916)



Released on March 23, 2020

The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity

Robert J. Barro, José F. Ursúa, and Joanna Weng
(NBER Working Paper 26866)

What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios

Andrew Atkeson
(NBER Working Paper 26867)

The Macroeconomics of Epidemics

Martin S. Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, and Mathias Trabandt
(NBER Working Paper 26882)


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