Yifan Gong

Social Science Centre
The University of Western Ontario
London, ON

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: University of Western Ontario

NBER Working Papers and Publications

October 2019The Consumption Value of College
with Lance Lochner, Ralph Stinebrickner, Todd R. Stinebrickner: w26335
This paper uses the Euler equation and novel data from Berea College students on their consumption expenditures during and after college, desired borrowing amounts, beliefs about post-college earnings, and elicited risk-aversion and time preference parameters to determine their consumption value of college attendance. Estimates suggest an average annual consumption value of college as high as $11,600, with considerable heterogeneity across students. Incorporating these benefits raises the average expected return to college by as much as 14%.
Marriage, Children, and Labor Supply: Beliefs and Outcomes
with Ralph Stinebrickner, Todd R. Stinebrickner: w26334
While a large literature is interested in the relationship between family and labor supply outcomes, little is known about the expectations of these objects at earlier stages. We examine these expectations, taking advantage of unique data from the Berea Panel Study. In addition to characterizing expectations, starting during college, the data details outcomes for ten years after graduation. On average, both male and female college students are well-informed about the future gender gap in labor supply. Gender differences in beliefs about this future gap are primarily explained by gender differences in beliefs about how future family outcomes are related to future labor supply. Methodological contributions come from an approach for addressing measurement error in survey questions and the r...
January 2019Uncertainty about Future Income: Initial Beliefs and Resolution During College
with Ralph Stinebrickner, Todd R. Stinebrickner: w25485
We use unique data from the Berea Panel Study to characterize how much earnings uncertainty is present for students at college entrance and how quickly this uncertainty is resolved. We characterize uncertainty using survey questions that elicit the entire distribution describing one’s beliefs about future earnings. Taking advantage of the longitudinal nature of the expectations data, we find that roughly two-thirds of the income uncertainty present at the time of entrance remains at the end of college. Taking advantage of a variety of additional survey questions, we provide evidence about how the resolution of income uncertainty is influenced by factors such as college GPA and college major, and also examine why much income uncertainty remains unresolved at the end of college. This paper a...

Published: Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2019. "Uncertainty about future income: Initial beliefs and resolution during college," Quantitative Economics, vol 10(2), pages 607-641. citation courtesy of

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