NBER

Valentina Conti

Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla
Rome 00153
Italy

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

NBER Working Papers and Publications

February 2019Technological Progress and Health Convergence: The Case of Penicillin in Post-War Italy
with Marcella Alsan, Vincenzo Atella, Jay Bhattacharya, Iván Mejía-Guevara, Grant Miller: w25541
Throughout history, technological progress has transformed population health, but the distributional effects of these gains are unclear. New substitutes for older, more expensive health technologies can produce convergence in population health outcomes, but may also be prone to “elite capture” leading to divergence. This paper studies the case of penicillin using detailed mortality statistics and exploiting its sharply-timed introduction in Italy after World War II. We find penicillin reduced both the mean and standard deviation of infectious diseases mortality, leading to substantial convergence across disparate regions of Italy. Our results do not appear to be confounded by competing risks or mortality patterns associated with World War II.

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