NBER

Tomoyoshi Yabu

Keio University
Tokyo 108-0073
Japan

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Keio University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

January 2020Japanese Foreign Exchange Interventions, 1971-2018: Estimating a Reaction Function Using the Best Proxy
with Takatoshi Ito: w26644
We analyze the history of Japanese foreign exchange interventions from 1971 to 2018. First, we provide the best proxy for monthly interventions for the period from 1971 to 1990, when the intervention timings and amounts were not officially disclosed. The accuracy of the proxy is tested for the period when the statistics were disclosed after 1991. The proxy explains 99.8% of actual settlement-based interventions. Second, we examine conditions under which the Japanese monetary authorities are likely to intervene by estimating a policy reaction function, using the long-term data, spanning the period when intervention data have been officially disclosed and the period where our proxy is available. Third, we analyze intervention timings and amounts for Japan, the US, and Germany. Fourth, we pre...
May 2004What Prompts Japan to Intervene in the Forex Market? A New Approach to a Reaction Function
with Takatoshi Ito: w10456
This paper analyzes and estimates the reaction function of the Japanese monetary authorities in deciding when to intervene in the foreign exchange (forex) markets, using daily Japanese intervention data from April 1, 1991 to December 31, 2002. This paper is the first in estimating the reaction function of the monetary authorities in the forex market intervention with following new methods. First, a theoretical friction model is presented to describe the intervention as cost-minimizing behavior. Second, the ordered probit analysis, which is consistent with the theoretical model, was carried out to predict authorities' reaction function. The regime change from frequent, small-size intervention before June 1995 and infrequent, large-size intervention after June 1995 is established and estima...

Published: Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March. citation courtesy of

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