Oscar Becerra

Calle 19A No 1-37 Este. Office W-824

E-Mail: obecerra@uniandes.edu.co
Institutional Affiliation: Universidad de los Andes

NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2020EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms
with Laura Alfaro, Marcela Eslava: w27360
Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on accounting identities and actual data, quantifies potential job and income losses during the crisis and recovery for economies with different economic organization structures. Our analysis incorporates differential exposure of jobs across categories of firm-size and formality status, as well as sectors and occupations. We account for the direct supply shock caused by lockdowns, the idiosyncratic demand shock suffered by sectors that rely on high contact with their costumers, the transmission of both shocks through IO linkages, and t...

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