Kunfu Zhu

Research Institute on Global Value Chains
University of International Business and Economics
Beijing 100029, CHINA

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: University of International Business and Economics

NBER Working Papers and Publications

August 2018Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective
with Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Xinding Yu: w24886
The United States imports intermediate inputs from China, helping downstream US firms to expand employment. Using a cross-regional reduced-form specification but differing from the existing literature, this paper (a) incorporates a supply chain perspective, (b) uses intermediate input imports rather than total imports in computing the downstream exposure, and (c) uses exporter-specific information to allocate imported inputs across US sectors. We find robust evidence that the total impact of trading with China is a positive boost to local employment and real wages. The most important factor is employment stimulation outside the manufacturing sector through the downstream channel. This overturns the received wisdom from the reduced-form literature and provides statistical support for a key ...
March 2017Characterizing Global Value Chains: Production Length and Upstreamness
with Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Xinding Yu: w23261
We develop a new set of country-sector level indicators of Global Value Chains (GVCs) characteristics in terms of average production length, and relative “upstreamness” on a production network, which we argue are better than the existing ones in the literature. We distinguish production activities into four types: those whose value added is both generated and absorbed within the country, those whose value-added crosses borders only once for consumption, those whose value added crosses borders only once for production, and those whose value added crosses borders more than once. Based on such an accounting framework, we further decompose total production length into different segments. Using these measures, we characterize cross-country production sharing patterns and their evolution for 56 ...
Measures of Participation in Global Value Chains and Global Business Cycles
with Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Xinding Yu: w23222
This paper makes two methodological contributions. First, it proposes a framework to decompose total production activities at the country, sector, or country-sector level, to different types, depending on whether they are for pure domestic demand, traditional international trade, simple GVC activities, and complex GVC activities. Second, it proposes a pair of GVC participation indices that improves upon the measures in the existing literature. We apply this decomposition framework to a Global Input-Output Database (WIOD) that cover 44 countries and 56 industries from 2000 to2014 to uncover evolving compositions of different production activities. We also show that complex GVC activities co-move with global GDP growth more strongly than other types of production activities.
November 2013Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels
with Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei: w19677
This paper generalizes the gross exports accounting framework, initially proposed by Koopman, Wang, and Wei (2014) for a country’s aggregate exports, to one at the sector, bilateral, and bilateral-sector levels. Such a generalization requires a conceptual distinction between value added exports by forward and backward industrial linkages, and a non-trivial way to allocate bilateral intermediate trade flows into their final destinations of absorption. We present the disaggregated decomposition results among 40 trading nations in 35 sectors from 1995 to 2011 based on the World Input-Output Database and show how they help us to better understand the patterns of cross-country production sharing.

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