NBER

Jon Samuels

Bureau of Economic Analysis
Suitland, MD 20746

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Bureau of Economic Analysis

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2020The Accumulation of Human and Market Capital in the United States: The Long View, 1948–2013
with Barbara M. Fraumeni, Michael S. Christian: w27170
Over the 1948–2013 period, many factors significantly impacted on human capital, which in turn affected economic growth in the United States. This chapter analyzes these factors within a complete national income accounting system which integrates Jorgenson-Fraumeni human capital into the accounts. By including human capital, a fresh perspective on economic growth across time and within specific subperiods is revealed, notably regarding the 1995–2000 and 2007–2009 periods. During the 1995–2000 period, the reduction in human capital investment significantly reduced apparent economic growth. In the 2007–2009 period, the increase in human capital investment tempered the negative impact of the Great Recession. Over the longer time period, first the post-World War baby boom and then the subs...
November 2017Educational Attainment and the Revival of US Economic Growth
with Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho
in Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, Charles R. Hulten and Valerie A. Ramey, editors
Labor quality growth captures the upgrading of the labor force through higher educational attainment and greater experience. We find that average levels of educational attainment of new entrants remain high, but will no longer continue to rise. Growing educational attainment will gradually disappear as a source of U.S. economic growth. We find that the investment boom of 1995-2000 drew many younger and less-educated workers into employment. Employment rates for these workers declined during the recovery of 2000-2007 and dropped further during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Based on estimates of labor quality growth, growth in total factor productivity, and growth in capital quality, we project labor productivity to grow at 1.3% per year. This implies a GDP growth rate of 1.8%.
July 2016Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth
with Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho: w22453
Labor quality growth captures the upgrading of the labor force through higher educational attainment and greater experience. We find that average levels of educational attainment of new entrants remain high, but will no longer continue to rise. Growing educational attainment will gradually disappear as a source of U.S. economic growth. We find that the investment boom of 1995-2000 drew many younger and less-educated workers into employment. Employment rates for these workers declined during the recovery of 2000-2007 and dropped further during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Based on estimates of labor quality growth, growth in total factor productivity, and growth in capital quality, we project labor productivity to grow at 1.3% per year. This implies a GDP growth rate of 1.8%.
June 2015The Accumulation of Human and Nonhuman Capital, Revisited
with Barbara M. Fraumeni, Michael S. Christian: w21284
In the 25 years since Jorgenson and Fraumeni (1989) published their first article on human capital, the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) and the SNA have changed significantly. The contribution of this paper is two-fold: Creation of a contemporary set of accounts which integrate human capital measures into the latest comprehensive revision of the U.S. national income accounts and an analysis of trends in human capital and national income account aggregates over the post-war period. The paper is a national income accounting paper with production and factor outlay, income, receipt and expenditure, capital accumulation , and wealth accounts. All of these accounts are tied to the NIPA accounts, and supplemented with human capital estimates. A key feature of the human capital a...

Published: Barbara M. Fraumeni & Michael S. Christian & Jon D. Samuels, 2017. "The Accumulation of Human and Nonhuman Capital, Revisited," Review of Income and Wealth, vol 63, pages S381-S410.

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