Institutional Affiliation: University College London
|Career Progression, Economic Downturns, and Skills|
with Christian Dustmann, Costas Meghir, Jean-Marc Robin: w18832
This paper analyzes the career progression of skilled and unskilled workers, with a focus on how careers are affected by economic downturns and whether formal skills, acquired early on, can shield workers from the effect of recessions. Using detailed administrative data for Germany for numerous birth cohorts across different regions, we follow workers from labor market entry onwards and estimate a dynamic life-cycle model of vocational training choice, labor supply, and wage progression. Most particularly, our model allows for labor market frictions that vary by skill group and over the business cycle. We find that sources of wage growth differ: learning-by-doing is an important component for unskilled workers early on in their careers, while job mobility is important for workers who acqui...
|The Dynamics of Car Sales: A Discrete Choice Approach|
with Russell Cooper: w7785
Mankiw  explores the Permanent Income Hypothesis implication that durable expenditures follow an ARMA(1,1) representation. He finds that durable expenditures are represented by an AR(1) process which implies that the rate of depreciation of durables, under the PIH model, is 100%. This finding presents a puzzle. Our paper builds on earlier work which attempts to explain this puzzle by considering the aggregation of the discrete dynamic choices of heterogeneous households. We implement this approach by estimating a dynamic discrete choice model of car replacement. We find that through aggregation we can explain both the AR and MA components of Mankiw's results. Further we find that our model is able to match a VAR representation of car sales, prices and income. We find that most...
|Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies|
with Russell Cooper: w6048
This paper studies the effects of subsidies on durable goods markets. In particular, we study a recent policy in France in which the governments of Balladur and Jupp‚ subsidized the replacement of old cars with new ones. To study this policy, we construct a dynamic stochastic discrete choice model of car ownership at the household level. The resulting decision rules and equilibrium conditions are used to estimate, using aggregate data, the underlying parameters of the model. These policy functions are used to evaluate the short and long run effects of the French policies. We find that these policies do stimulate the automobile sector in the short run but, through the induced changes in the cross sectional distribution of car ages, create the basis for subsequent low activity. Further...
Published: Adda, Jerome and Russell Cooper. "Balladurette And Juppette: A Discrete Analysis Of Scrapping Subsidies," Journal of Political Economy, 2000, v108(4,Aug), 778-806. citation courtesy of