Institutional Affiliation: Chinese University of Hong Kong
|Good-Bye Original Sin, Hello Risk On-Off, Financial Fragility, and Crises?|
with , , : w27030
We analyze the sovereign bond issuance data of eight major emerging markets (EM) - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Turkey and South Africa - in 1970-2018. Our analysis suggests EMs are more likely to issue local-currency sovereign bonds if their currencies appreciated before the global financial crisis of 2008 (GFC). Inflation-targeting monetary policy regime increases the likelihood of issuing local-currency debt before GFC but not after. EMs that offer higher yields are more likely to issue local-currency bond after GFC. EM bonds which are smaller in size, shorter in maturity, or lower in coupon rate are more likely to be issued in local currency. Future data will allow us to test and identify structural changes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.
|House Valuations and Economic Growth: Some International Evidence|
with , : w22699
This paper evaluates the relation between house prices and economic growth. Using a dataset that covers house prices for 19 countries from the first quarter of 1975 to the third quarter of 2013. We find that house price appreciations are positively associated with economic growth, while the relation between house price depreciations and economic growth is highly non-linear, depending on country-specific characteristics. In the absence of concurrent banking crisis, large house price depreciations (rather than prolonged and modest ones) are positively associated with economic growth. We also find that the positive association between house price depreciations and economic growth is more pronounced in countries with civil-law legal systems, in countries without mortgage insurance or personal ...
|Chinese Outwards Mercantilism – the Art and Practice of Bundling|
with , : w21089
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) brought to the fore the limits of the Chinese export led-growth strategy and the need for Chinese rebalancing of its international business approaches. Our paper takes stock of what may be the new chapter of Chinese outward-mercantilism, which aims at securing a higher rate of returns on its net foreign asset position, leveraging its success in manufacturing exports, natural resource imports and RMB internationalization. Using micro-level project data and macroeconomic covariates, we find positive association of Chinese trade and financial flows with China’s outward direct investment (ODI). The relationship is stronger for ODI originated from the Chinese state-owned enterprises, and strengthened by the provision of RMB swap-line agreements with China’s tra...
Published: Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Huanhuan Zheng, 2018. "Chinese Outwards Mercantilism – the Art and Practice of Bundling," Journal of International Money and Finance, . citation courtesy of
|Capital Controls in Brazil - Stemming a Tide with a Signal?|
with , : w19205
Controls on capital inflows have been experiencing a renaissance since 2008, with several prominent emerging markets implementing them. We focus on Brazil, which instituted five changes in its capital account regime in 2008-2011. Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals (i.e., Brazil with no policy change) for each of these changes. We find no evidence that any tightening of controls was effective in reducing the magnitudes of capital inflows, but we observe some modest and short-lived success in preventing further declines in inflows when the capital controls were relaxed. We hypothesize that price-based capital controls' only perceptible effect is to be found in the content of the signal they broadcast regarding the government's larger intentions and sensibilities...
Published: Jinjarak, Yothin & Noy, Ilan & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2013. "Capital controls in Brazil â Stemming a tide with a signal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2938-2952. citation courtesy of