Manuel Lancastre

Department of Economics
Brown University
Box B
Robinson Hall
64 Waterman Street
Providence, RI 02912

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Institutional Affiliation: Brown University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

August 2018Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation
with Gauti B. Eggertsson, Lawrence H. Summers: w24902
This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler, Poterba, Sheiner, and Summers (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between measures of population aging and per-capita output growth. Our contribution is demonstrating that this relationship breaks down when the adjustment of interest rates is inhibited by an effective lower bound on nominal rates as took place during the Great Financial Crisis decade. Indeed, during the “secular stagnation regime” of 2008-2015 that prevailed in a number of countries, aging had a negative impact on living standards, consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis.

Published: Gauti B. Eggertsson & Manuel Lancastre & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review: Insights, vol 1(3), pages 325-342. citation courtesy of

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