Institutional Affiliation: MOVE-UAB
|Should Germany Have Built a New Wall? Macroeconomic Lessons from the 2015-18 Refugee Wave|
with , , , : w26973
In 2015-2016 Germany experienced a wave of predominantly low-skilled refugee immigration. We evaluate its macroeconomic and distributional effects using a quantitative overlapping generations model calibrated using German micro data to replicate education and productivity differentials between foreign born and native workers. Workers are modelled as imperfect substitutes in aggregate production leading to endogenous wage differentials. We simulate the dynamic effects of this refugee wave, with specific focus on the welfare impact on low skilled natives. Our results indicate that the small losses this group suffers can be compensated by welfare gains of other parts of the native population.
Published: Christopher Busch & Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova & Zainab Iftikhar, 2020. "Should Germany Have Built a New Wall? Macroeconomic Lessons from the 2015-18 Refugee Wave," Journal of Monetary Economics, .
|Asymmetric Business-Cycle Risk and Social Insurance|
with , , : w24569
This paper studies the business-cycle variation in higher-order (labor) income risk—that is, risks that are captured by moments higher than the variance. We examine the extent to which such risks can be smoothed within households or with government social insurance and tax policies. We use panel data from three countries that differ in many aspects relevant for our analysis: the United States, Germany, and Sweden. Our analysis has three main results. First, using individual gross income, we document that skewness is procyclical and dispersion (variance) is flat and acyclical in Germany and Sweden, as was previously documented for the United States. The same patterns hold true for groups defined by education, gender, public- versus private-sector jobs, among others. Second, household-level ...