A Panel-based Proxy for Gun Prevalence in the US

Daniel Cerqueira, Danilo Santa Cruz Coelho, John J. Donohue, Marcelo Fernandes, Jony Arrais Pinto Jr.

Bibliographic Information

NBER Working Paper No. 25530
Issued in February 2019
NBER Program(s):LE

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There is a consensus that the proportion of suicides committed with a firearm is the best proxy for gun ownership prevalence. Cerqueira et al. (2108) exploit the socioeconomic characteristics of suicide victims in order to develop a new and more refined proxy. It is based on the fixed effects of the victim's place of residence estimated from a discrete choice model for the likelihood of committing suicide with gun. We empirically assess this new indicator using gun ownership data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and suicide registers of the US National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) from 1995 through 2004. We demonstrate that this new gun proxy provides significant gains in correlation with the percentage of households with firearms.

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