NBER

John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller

Bibliographic Information

NBER Working Paper No. 2100 (Also Reprint No. r1173)
Issued in December 1986
NBER Program(s):ME, EFG

Published: Review of Financial Studies 1988, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 195-228, (1988). citation courtesy of

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Abstract

A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for U. S. time series 1871-1986: versions using real interest rate data, aggregate real consumption data, and return variance data. The results yield a metric to judge the relative importance of real dividend growth, measured real discount rates and unexplained factors in determining the dividend-price ratio.

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