NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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20 August 2019

The Macroeconomics of the Greek Depression

A nominal devaluation would only have short-lived stabilizing effects on Greece’s long-running depression, while shifting the burden of adjustment from taxes toward spending or from capital taxes toward other taxes would generate significant longer-term gains in national income, according to Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Loukas Karabarbounis, and Rohan Kekre.

19 August 2019

How Unions Overcome The Free-Rider Problem

One of the benefits of union membership is assistance in defending against employment-related lawsuits. In a study of UK teachers, Richard Murphy finds that for every five media stories in a region alleging abuses by teachers, teachers in the region are 2.2 percentage points more likely to be union members in the subsequent year.

16 August 2019

Long-Run Weather Forecasting Benefits the Rural Poor

Mark R. Rosenzweig and Christopher R. Udry find that in areas of India where long-term weather forecasts are accurate, investment, migration and rural wages respond to forecasts. They estimate that improved weather forecasting in other parts of the country could save billions of rupees annually.

15 August 2019

The Changing Structure of American Innovation

Division of innovative labor between research universities and large corporations over the last three decades may have raised the volume of science by universities but it has slowed the transformation of that knowledge into novel products and processes,Ashish Arora, Sharon Belenzon, Andrea Patacconi, and Jungkyu Suh find.

14 August 2019

The Perry Preschoolers at Late Midlife

An analysis by James J. Heckman and Ganesh Karapakula of the life course outcomes of participants in an experimental high-quality preschool program for disadvantaged African-American children in the 1960s finds long-term positive effects on crime, employment, health, and both cognitive and non-cognitive skills.

13 August 2019

Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty

Prior to China’s accession to the WTO, there was an increase in trade when the country’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) status was about to expire, George A. Alessandria, Shafaat Y. Khan, and Armen Khederlarian find. Concern that tariffs would rise if MFN status expired drove this pattern.

12 August 2019

The Introduction of Supplemental Security Income

Andrew Goodman-Bacon and Lucie Schmidt find that the introduction of federally administered Supplemental Security Income in 1974 increased disability participation in states with the lowest pre-SSI benefits, but shrank non-disability cash transfer programs.

9 August 2019

Timing Matters for Parenting Interventions

Sending text-message-based parenting information on the weekend is more beneficial to children’s literacy and math development than sending text on weekdays particularly for initially lower achieving children, Kalena E. Cortes, Hans D.U. Fricke, Susanna Loeb, David S. Song, and Benjamin N. York find. Weekday texts do show benefits for initially higher achieving children.

8 August 2019

State Tax Incentives for Film-making Have Little Effect

State tax incentives for film-making have little or no meaningful effect on filming location, or on film industry employment and wages, according to research by Patrick Button.

7 August 2019

Urban Crime and the Heat Gradient in LA

Overall crime in Los Angeles increases by 2.2 percent and violent crime by 5.7 percent on days with maximum daily temperatures above 85 degrees Fahrenheit, Kilian Heilmann and Matthew E. Kahn find. The heat-crime relationship is more pronounced in low-income neighborhoods.
 
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