17 October 2019

Effects of Schooling on Costless Health Maintenance

Higher levels of schooling lower the likelihood of obesity among rural Chinese youth, with a large component of the causal effects due to increased information on the benefits of maintaining a healthy weight, a study by Mark R. Rosenzweig and Junsen Zhang finds.

16 October 2019

The Value of Government Debt

Half of the variation in the market value of government debt to GDP ratio corresponds to varying forecasts of future primary surpluses, and half to varying discount rates, John H. Cochrane calculates. Variation in expected growth rates is unimportant.

15 October 2019

Carbon Taxes and CO2 Emissions

Carbon prices as high as $200 per ton of CO2 will only reduce cumulative emissions from oil by 4% as the supply curve is very steep for high oil prices and few reserves drop out, Geoffrey Heal and Wolfram Schlenker estimate.

11 October 2019

Electric Vehicles and Tax Revenues

Electric vehicles have reduced US gasoline tax revenues by $250 million annually, mostly in a handful of states where EVs are more concentrated, and the effect is highly regressive, as most electric vehicles are driven by high-income households, Lucas W. Davis and James M. Sallee calculate.

10 October 2019

Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

A depreciation in the state-specific, trade-weighted real exchange rate is associated with an increase in exports, a decline in unemployment and an increase in hours worked, particularly in periods of economic slack, Christopher L. House, Christian Proebsting, and Linda L. Tesar.

9 October 2019

The Unresponsiveness of College Students to Nudging

College students study between five to eight hours less each week than they plan to, according to a study by Philip Oreopoulos and Uros Petronijevic. They also find that study time is not sensitive to text messages and on-line nudges.

8 October 2019

Is U.S. Employment Really Becoming Polarized?

While the share of workers earning middle wages has declined since 1973, Jennifer Hunt and Ryan Nunn find that there has been a substantial increase in the share of workers earning high wages, and a decline in the share earning low wages. This pattern is inconsistent with claims of employment polarization, which would predict a sharp increase in the numbers at low wages.

7 October 2019

China's 'Hidden' Overseas Lending

China has exported record amounts of capital to the rest of the world, much if it not reported to the IMF, the BIS or the World Bank, according to new research by Sebastian Horn, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch. The lack of transparency about these flows distorts risk assessment in both policy surveillance and the market pricing of sovereign debt.

4 October 2019

Fertility Decline in the Civil Rights Era

The relative fertility of Southern black women precipitously declined immediately after passage and implementation of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which precipitated a period of rapid socioeconomic and political progress among African Americans, Owen Thompson reports.

3 October 2019

Exchange Rate Reconnect

Variation in Americans’ purchases of foreign bonds were not correlated with exchange rate movements prior to 2007, but since then, they have provided significant explanatory power for currencies’ movements, according to a new study by Andrew Lilley, Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman, and Jesse Schreger.
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